NUMERICAL FORECAST OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION OF DIFFERENT INTENSITY USING THE WRF MODEL AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY INDICES

The paper studies the possibilities of using modern approaches to forecasting summer precipitation different intensity such as numerical modeling with WRF model and use atmospheric instability indices (CAPE, CIN, LI) calculated based on outputs for territory Urals. were determined both at location weather station (at nearest grid node) by calculating maximum average values in buffer zone a radius 50 km. quality forecast step 3 9 km was evaluated. Urals assessed. measurements 12-h amount July 2020 stations located Perm Territory, Sverdlovsk, Chelyabinsk, Kurgan regions well republics Udmurtia Bashkortostan served verification material. We propose new approach predicting presence or absence point fields 12 h accumulated amounts, which demonstrates higher success rates compared other considered. results study indicate satisfactory varying (except very heavy precipitation) model. It is shown that increasing calculation does not lead an increase forecast. Recommendations forecasts operational practice are formulated.